Auburn vs. "Heed"

"That boy's head is like Sputnik; spherical but quite pointy at parts. Now that was offsides, wasn't it? He'll be crying himself to sleep tonight, on his huge pillow."

Let's hope that Miles will be crying himself to sleep tomorrow night on his huge pillow after losing. It'll take a near flawless game on Auburn's part to pull this one out. LSU is the real deal.

Offense - I'm excited that Auburn will be opening up their offense tomorrow night against LSU. Not that I don't enjoy a good low-scoring slugfest, because I do. I just think they'll need to in order to win.

LSU has the number one scoring and rushing defense in the SEC. LSU also leads the SEC in sacks, which could mean big trouble for Cox.

Auburn has played only two teams that can compare with LSU's sacking ability, KSU and USF. As of yesterday morning, both of these teams were averaging more sacks per game than LSU. They also forced Cox into making bad decisions. KSU had 5 sacks and 8 quarterback hurries, and USF has 2 sacks and 13 quarterback hurries against Auburn. You can bet that Les Miles and defensive coordinator, Bo Pelini, are going to try to exploit this.

Auburn hasn't had much success on the ground against powerful rushing defenses this year. This can partially be attributed to Brad Lester's absense. The impact he has made since his return is definitely evident, but I'm still not certain his presense will make much difference against LSU's stifling D. After all, they're only allowing 68 yards per game on the ground.

It would be nice if Borges pulled a Muschamp and completely obliterate the force he's facing this week. I would like to see more passing, but Auburn's going to have to establish the run early in the game before doing so. Either way, they're going to have contain Ken Dorsey and know where Craig Steltz is at all times.

Defense - LSU has the number two rushing offense and the number eight passing in the SEC. This balances out making them fourth in the SEC in total offense.

After last week, I have no worries that Auburn can stop the run, but what about the pass? Auburn has given up some big plays this year through the air. It seems that Wilhite is good for at least one boner play a game. The linebackers pass coverage leaves a lot to be desired as well.

It looks like Aairon Savage might get to play, which is good. Quentin Groves is back, and will be able to put pressure on the QB. Even with their return, I'm still not convinced that Auburn can consistently stop the pass.

Luckily, LSU's offensive weakness is their passing game. Matt Flynn hasn't been impressive at all this season. I have to agree with Richard Pittman at Geaux Tuscaloosa when he says, "As for Perrilloux, it is clear that he is the more talented QB between he and Flynn." Don't tell Miles this. I'd much rather see Flynn lining up behind center tomorrow than Perrilloux.

Vols Fan - One Week Only

"I'll get you my fatty. . .and your little hound too!"

I have an unspoken pact with one of my best friends where I become a Tennessee fan one week out of the year, possibly two. I'm talking about the third week in October and if the Vols and Tide win their division, the SEC Championship game. Of course, this doesn't involve me being "just happy" if Bama loses. I have to become an actual Tennessee fan. With that, my attitude has to change for the worse. I have to trash talk and all of that fun stuff. So yeah, go Vols!!!

Everyone knows that the Philsbury Doughboy owns the crapstain. After all, he's amassed an 11-3* record against the turd. He also went 2-1 against the Buhr while playing offensive guard for the Vols. However, he's only 1-2 against the Wicked Witch of the SEC West.

A bammer would say that Fulmer's losing record to the Wicked Witch gives them an advantage, but to the trained eye of a Tennessee fan, they're nothing but a redneck idiot. That lying SOB has never played the Southern Sumo under these conditions.

Saban at Bama is no match for Fulmer.

That's right. Fulmer will extend his total domination over the turd Saturday morning, and the cups will come flying to the field at Bryant Denny Restaurant.

*Was 10-3-1, but the crimson cheat forfeited 1993 giving UT the win.

The SEC on TV

This weekend, the Bama/Tennessee game will be aired on Lincoln Financial, and I can't remember the last time that this game wasn't covered by CBS. TideDruid isn't too happy about this, and rightfully so. He expresses his frustration here:

"What amazes me about this AM kick-off is the fact that for the first time in a while, both teams are having pretty decent seasons. The same could not be said these last 2 seasons (2005 UT and 2006 Bama were both mediocre teams, although they ended up on CBS). Now we have to deal with the army of Daves as LF Sports comes to town *grumbles due to hatred of watching LF Sports games*"

So why not this year? The answer lies in the other SEC games.

Last year, the Bama/UT game was easily the top choice. Both Auburn and LSU were playing out of conference patsies, USC had Vanderbilt (SEC patsy), and Arkansas and Georgia were playing the Mississippi schools.

This year, there are two in-conference games where both teams are ranked: Florida/Kentucky, and Auburn/LSU. The Florida game will be covered by CBS, and the Auburn game will be covered by ESPN. But why will the Bama game be on LF instead of ESPN2?

I searched for an explanation of how the television contracts work. The official SEC site gives a list of networks contracted to televise SEC sporting events.

"The SEC has television contracts with CBS Sports (national), ESPN (national cable), FSN South/FSN Southwest/SUN Sports (regional cable) and Lincoln Financial Sports (regional syndication)."

I then found this article that does a good job explaining the selection process.

Basically, big wigs from ESPN and CBS get together every winter and rank what they feel as being the ten biggest SEC games in the upcoming year. CBS gets seven of these games, while ESPN gets three (4th, 7th, and 10th ranked games).

After that, CBS gets priority for all SEC home games. ESPN gets second choice, LF gets third, then ESPN2.

There are also certain stipulations each network must follow. CBS can carry only two SEC home games against non-conference teams, which could be one of the reasons why the UA/FSU game was at a neutral site. A team can only be covered four times throughout the regular season by CBS. Lincoln Financial must cover every SEC team at least once.

The line-ups can still change week by week, which is why a full schedule is never released. CBS can change their game, as long as its not one of the three ESPN's preseason choices. I imagine this is what happened this weekend.

One of the three games ESPN chose to cover this year is the Auburn/LSU game. Up until last week, ESPN listed the Bama/Tennessee game as being covered by CBS. This leads me to believe that it was one of CBS's preseason choices. After Kentucky upset LSU last week, CBS decided to cover their game instead. It's either cover a rivalry game that doesn't have hold much importance on a national level, or a game against two ranked teams with Heisman hopefuls.

Apparently, this doesn't happen often, but it does happen. CBS dropped the Iron Bowl in 2003 to cover Ole Miss and LSU. The winner of that game would decide who was going to Atlanta. Eli Manning was in the race for the Heisman, so there was national interest there as well.

So the original schedule was more than likely UA/UT on CBS, AU/LSU on ESPN, UF/UK on LF (probably), and ESPN2 may or may not carry an SEC game. The current schedule is UF/UK on CBS, AU/LSU on ESPN, UA/UT on LF, and no SEC game on ESPN2.

I have to agree with TideDruid's amazement. I never thought I'd see the day when the Bama/Tennessee game gets bumped by Kentucky.

Who Owns the Refs?

Bama fans like to claim that they own the SEC, but what about the refs? No way! They never get the calls. In fact the refs are always out to get the mighty Tide. So what's the truth? I had the time, so I looked up the penalty numbers for Auburn and Alabama in their first four games. I then went a step further and looked up each of their opponents' penalty numbers as well.

Here is a basic comparison of the penalties called in Alabama's and Auburn's games this year:

	Pen.	Yards	Pen./G	Yards/G	1st dns	1st dns/G
Bama	22	184	5.5	46	10	2.5
Opponents	27	267	6.8	66.8	3	0.8
Auburn	24	208	6	52	9	2.3
Opponents	34	265	8.5	66.3	7	1.8

In a direct comparison between the two, Auburn is averaging 0.5 more penalties and 6 more penalty yards a game than Alabama. Auburn opponents are averaging 1.7 more penalties and .5 less penalty yards a game than Alabama's opponents.

Both Alabama and Auburn have less penalties and penalty yards than their opponents. There is a wider margin of penalties called in Auburn's games. However, there is a wider margin of penalty yardage in Bama's games.

The numbers that really stick out are the 1st downs gained from penalties. Alabama has 7 more 1st downs attributed to penalties than their opponents. Auburn only has two.

You can't find out that much looking at the first set of numbers. Kansas State, one of Auburn's opponents, is averaging 133 yards of penalties a game. On the other hand, Vanderbilt, one of Alabama's opponents, is only averaging 42.7 penalty yards a game. So I decided to look at what Alabama's and Auburn's opponents were averaging in their other games in regards to penalties.

Here is a comparison of the average penalties called in Alabama's and Auburn's opponents' other games and what was called in their games against the Tide and Tigers.

	Pen./G	Yards/G	Opp. Pen./G	Opp. Yards/G
vs. others (avg)	6	50.5	7	53.1
vs. Bama	6.8	66.8	5.5	46
vs. others (avg)	8.6	79.8	7.8	60.3
vs. Auburn	8.5	66.3	6	52

This might paint a clearer picture of what's happening. On average, teams have been penalized more and for more yards when playing Alabama than when playing other teams. This hasn't been the case for Auburn's opponents. Compared to other teams the opponents have played, Auburn and Alabama get called for less penalties, and are penalized for less yards.

So what does this information reveal? Other than the fact that I had too much time on my hands yesterday, it doesn't reveal too much. By these numbers alone, it would appear that Bama is benefiting more from the refs than Auburn is. In reality, these statistics only scratch the surface. They don't indicate the situation surrounding each penalty. Also, there is no record of "no-calls". Alabama and Auburn fans will just have to keep arguing over who owns the refs. There is one thing we can all agree on, though. If ESPN analyst, Todd Blackledge, had his druthers, Bama would have 0 penalties for 0 yards this year.

Picking My Nose

God gave me my face, but he let me pick my nose. You know what else I like picking? How the SEC teams will do in conference before a single down has been played.

SEC East

1. Florida - Tebow better be the real deal because Florida is going to have to replace the majority of their defense this year. No worries, Tebow will have a nice target in Senior receiver, Caldwell. Look for Harvin to put up some big numbers on the ground as well.

2. South Carolina - South Carolina is going to surprise some people this year. They were in every ballgame last season except for one and are returning 10 returning starters on defense. Everyone is talking about Tebow and Woodson, but Mitchell is no chopped liver. When he's on his game, he's a definite threat. And NEVER underestimate the Ole Ball Coach.

3. Tennessee - Ainge is going to have a hard time finding a receiver with a lot of game experience, so Coker needs to step it up. That's going to be tough with a subpar offensive line. Will Cutcliffe be the difference UT's offense needs?

4. Kentucky - Woodson is good, but not good enough to compensate for lack of talent on Kentucky's defense. They are returning several starters on that side of the ball, but keep in mind that Kentucky's defense was one of the worst in the country last year.

5. Georgia - Georgia's defense was ranked 8th in the nation last year. Too bad they're only returning three starters. On top of that, Paul Oliver will be ineligible to play. This will be a rebuilding season for UGA.

6. Vanderbilt - It would be nice if Vanderbilt proved me wrong on this one. After all, they do have most of their defense returning. Everyone wants them to succeed.

SEC West

1. LSU - LSU will have the top defense in the SEC. This will be enough to compensate for problems that could emerge on offense. Flynn has been a career backup. Will he bring enough to the table for LSU? A favorable home schedule should have them winning the West easily.

2. Auburn - If Lester, and Cox can stay healthy, Auburn will have a good season despite their grueling away schedule. This might prove difficult considering the lack of experience on the offensive line. Auburn's defense will be the second best in the SEC.

3. Arkansas - The stable is full, but there is no real quarterback to act as a decoy. Couple this with a relatively inexperienced line, and you can expect every team to stack the box against them this year. McFadden might have put the nail in the coffin by appearing on the SI cover.

4. Alabama - If the current trend continues, half of the Bama squad will have seen the inside of the Tuscaloosa jail by the end of the season. Saban will be the factor in winning close games, but Bama's weak offensive line and running game will keep Wilson scrambling all season long.

5. Ole Miss - Ole Miss will have one of the stronger offensive lines in the SEC West. However, they will have to replace all of their linebackers. Orgeron just doesn't seem to get it done. This year won't be any different.

6. Mississippi State - Even with 10 returning starters on offense, they will still end in last place in the West. MSU should be able to beat Gardner-Webb, whoever the hell that is.