Who Owns the Refs? - Revisited

It's Iron Bowl week, so I decided to do another comparison of penalties called in Auburn's and Alabama's games. In doing so, I also compared their opponents' penalties against Auburn and Alabama to what they averaged against other opponents.

When I compiled my first "Who Owns the Refs?" entry, Auburn and Alabama had only played four games. They both have now played eleven games, so we should be able to get a better idea of who really owns the refs in this state.

Here are comparisons of penalties per game and penalty yards per game for Alabama, Auburn, and the SEC average.

Hmmm, interesting. While opponents were penalized more times for more yards against both teams, Alabama certainly takes the cake.

Auburn is on par with the SEC average in penalties per game and penalty yards per game. Alabama is penalized less for far less yards than the SEC average. They're number one in both categories in the SEC. When it comes to penalty yards and opponent penalty yards, Alabama is number four and number three in the nation.

Of course, there is no distinction between offensive and defensive penalties here. I'm definitely not going to sift through a bunch of play-by-plays to get the information either! However, we can see which offense is getting more of a boost from penalties by comparing first downs gained by penalties.

I included the total chart because it paints a better picture of what's going on. Auburn has gotten more first downs from penalties than the SEC average, but so has their opponents. The gap between first downs awarded to Alabama compared to their opponents is amazing. They've received more first downs from penalties than any other team in the nation. There are only four teams in the nation whose opponents have received less first downs from penalties than Alabama. Could this be because of Bama's schedule?

Auburn and Alabama have had six common opponents this year. Are their non-common opponents skewing their numbers? After all, USF and KSU are two of the top penalized teams in the country. Let's see how Alabama's and Auburn's opponents averaged against other teams.

I took the average from the opponent teams, excluding Alabama for their comparison and Auburn for theirs. Western Carolina and Tennessee Tech were excluded from this average.

Teams averaged less penalties for less yards when playing other opponents than when playing Alabama and Auburn. There is clearly a larger gap for Bama's opponents. The teams they've played have averaged less penalties for less yards per game than Auburn's opponents, yet they averaged more penalties for more yards when playing Bama.

What about their opponents' penalties?

Auburn's opponents benefited from the same number of penalties per game against other teams than they did against Auburn. The yardage is about the same as well.

Again, there is a clear difference between the number of penalties called when teams have played Alabama. Those teams benefited from more penalties for more yards per game against other opponents than the teams Auburn played. Head to head, Bama's opponents didn't get nearly as many calls or as many yards as Auburn's opponents did.

What about first downs?

Opponents got more first downs from penalties against Auburn than against other teams. Likewise, Auburn received more first downs from penalties than the other teams they played. That pretty much balances out.

Bama's comparison speaks for itself.

Basically, teams have been penalized more, for more yards, and given up more first downs from penalties when they played Bama than when they played other teams. It's not even close. And it's because of this we can conclude that Bama fans have no business complaining about calls.

I'm not sure if Bama owns the refs. Every team in the SEC has gotten their share of BS calls this year. But this screen cap taken from the Bama/Ole Miss game is mighty suspicious.

Another Egg Laid

Brad Lester...not having fun.

From middle school through high school, my football team had one of the most talented around. A good number of those guys received full rides from Division 1 schools, with one of them ending his career in the NFL. Several others played at 1AA schools, and one or two received scholarships in other sports. There was no doubt that we had some athletes, but we could never really get things going. Everything fell flat at game time.

Pregame was the same every week. We weren't allowed to go home after school. We had to sit around the gym or locker room...quietly. In between playing cards and/or taking a nap, different groups would briefly meet with their coaches to watch film, or go over last minute game notes. We would eat our pregame meal in silence, and file into buses.

We were never allowed to talk on the bus rides to wherever we were playing. The coaches always said that we were supposed to use this time to think about the game. I always dreaded the bus rides. Not a single noise was heard but the bus's engine. I could drink two pots of coffee and still struggle to stay awake in that situation.

After arriving to the field, we would walk to one end zone and then the other without saying a word. We'd put our shoulder pads and helmets on in the locker room and head out to stretch and warm up. We weren't allowed to talk while stretching.

Back in the locker room, we'd huddle around. The coach would give a speech about how every game is important. They always read the same poem in monotone before the Lord's Prayer.

After the Lord's Prayer, it was always something along the lines of, "Alright, you ready to get pumped!?!? You ready to win this thing!?!"

To this day, I don't understand the "pregame logic" of these coaches. I'm not sure how it is/was at other schools, but this is not the way to go about things. We were lulled to sleep for several hours then expected to get pumped up five or ten minutes to kickoff. Not only were we lulled to sleep, but the constant silence never did anything but build tension. This was nothing but a recipe for disaster.

What does this have to do with this past weekend? Look at Georgia. I think one of the main reasons they've turned a corner is because Richt is allowing his players to have fun. The result is a more relaxed team. The result is a a team that's pumped up and full of energy throughout the game. Some people may not agree with his tactics, but the results speak volumes.

You can say that Auburn lost b/c Cox reverted to Mr. Hyde, because our DBs can't cover man-to-man if their life depended on it, or because Tuberville was preoccupied during the week. Whatever the case may be, I think everyone can agree that Auburn's play was completely lackadaisical.

I don't know what goes on during Auburn's pregame. Over the past few years, there have been several games where Auburn came out playing like they had just woken up from a coma. This year, their disappointing performances were against Kansas State, USF, MSU, and Georgia. Auburn was outscored in the first quarter of those games 30 to 6.

The results are similar when looking at last year's games against Arkansas and Georgia, where Auburn was outscored 17 to 0 in the first quarter.

The year before that? 20 to 0 in games against Georgia Tech and Wisconsin.

Even going back as far as 2003, it's evident that Auburn has trouble getting up for some games. That year, they were outscored a whopping 37 to 0 in games against USC, Georgia Tech, LSU and Georgia.

I think you get the point. Something about Auburn's pregame needs to change. If you've seen footage of Tuberville before games, it's evident that he isn't much of a motivational speaker. Perhaps he needs to hire someone on that is. Too bad this guy isn't around any more.

The Tubs Don't Lie

When asked whether he he was going to leave Ole Miss Tuberville responded by saying, "They'll have to carry me out of here in a pine box." Contrary to popular belief, this was not a lie.

Tuberville waves goodbye to Mississippi.

People argue that the "Tub-Boat", built by Tuberville and his wisecracking father-in-law, isn't actually constructed of pine. What those people fail to recognize is that "pine box" is a synonym of casket.

People also argue that no one actually carried him out of there. This is just simple symbolism, people. "They" refers to the ponies under the hood.

So there you go. Tuberville didn't come out and say, "I'll leave Oxford in a casket hot rod," but he certainly didn't lie. Maybe he should have dumbed down his wording for the anti-Auburn crowd, but like Pat Dye says, "Hindsight is 20/20."

Tuberville, Cutcliffe, Orgeron

I was a Sophomore at Auburn when Tuberville made the move from Ole Miss. At the time, I thought it was a poor choice hiring a coach that was barely over .500 at a school in the same conference. It was odd that Auburn would hire a coach who was 0-4 against the Tigers.

I remember how pissed off Ole Miss fans were after Tuberville left them for Auburn. They resented him for stabbing them in the back, and they resented Auburn for stealing their coach. Signs bashing Tuberville were seen all over Oxford his first trip back. Ole Miss fans booed during Auburn's alma mater.

Ten years after Tuberville's first year at Ole Miss, Orgeron coached his first game as a Rebel. I decided to compare what he's done so far to what Tuberville did his first two and a half years, well, because I was bored.

Both men took over a team that was 4-7 the previous year. The team Tuberville inherited was on probation and compiled a 2-6 SEC record. The team Orgeron inherited went 3-5 in SEC play under Cutcliff the year before his hiring. Even though Tuberville took over a team that was on probation, I think it's safe to say that both coaches took over comparable situations.

In his first two years and eight games into his third year, Tuberville went 16-14 overall and 8-14 in SEC play. So far, Orgeron is 9-22 overall and 3-18 in SEC play. It looks like Tuberville did a better job than Orgeron. You know who else did a better job than Orgeron? David Cutcliffe.
Cutcliffe was 21-11 overall and 11-10 in SEC play during the same time period of his career at Ole Miss...even better than Tuberville.

Of course, these kinds of comparisons are completely useless. Tuberville is an excelent recruiter and left Cutcliffe with some ponies in the stable. One of the alleged reasons Cutcliffe was let go was because he didn't meet recruiting expectations, so you could argue that Orgeron inherited a team that lacks a lot of talent.

So what's going to happen to Ole Miss? I don't follow recruiting that much, so I'm not sure where they're going in that respect. Will Orgeron get to hang around long enough to coach his own team? Only time will tell on that one. After all, Tuberville didn't turn out to be a poor choice after all.

Auburn vs. "Heed"

"That boy's head is like Sputnik; spherical but quite pointy at parts. Now that was offsides, wasn't it? He'll be crying himself to sleep tonight, on his huge pillow."

Let's hope that Miles will be crying himself to sleep tomorrow night on his huge pillow after losing. It'll take a near flawless game on Auburn's part to pull this one out. LSU is the real deal.

Offense - I'm excited that Auburn will be opening up their offense tomorrow night against LSU. Not that I don't enjoy a good low-scoring slugfest, because I do. I just think they'll need to in order to win.

LSU has the number one scoring and rushing defense in the SEC. LSU also leads the SEC in sacks, which could mean big trouble for Cox.

Auburn has played only two teams that can compare with LSU's sacking ability, KSU and USF. As of yesterday morning, both of these teams were averaging more sacks per game than LSU. They also forced Cox into making bad decisions. KSU had 5 sacks and 8 quarterback hurries, and USF has 2 sacks and 13 quarterback hurries against Auburn. You can bet that Les Miles and defensive coordinator, Bo Pelini, are going to try to exploit this.

Auburn hasn't had much success on the ground against powerful rushing defenses this year. This can partially be attributed to Brad Lester's absense. The impact he has made since his return is definitely evident, but I'm still not certain his presense will make much difference against LSU's stifling D. After all, they're only allowing 68 yards per game on the ground.

It would be nice if Borges pulled a Muschamp and completely obliterate the force he's facing this week. I would like to see more passing, but Auburn's going to have to establish the run early in the game before doing so. Either way, they're going to have contain Ken Dorsey and know where Craig Steltz is at all times.

Defense - LSU has the number two rushing offense and the number eight passing in the SEC. This balances out making them fourth in the SEC in total offense.

After last week, I have no worries that Auburn can stop the run, but what about the pass? Auburn has given up some big plays this year through the air. It seems that Wilhite is good for at least one boner play a game. The linebackers pass coverage leaves a lot to be desired as well.

It looks like Aairon Savage might get to play, which is good. Quentin Groves is back, and will be able to put pressure on the QB. Even with their return, I'm still not convinced that Auburn can consistently stop the pass.

Luckily, LSU's offensive weakness is their passing game. Matt Flynn hasn't been impressive at all this season. I have to agree with Richard Pittman at Geaux Tuscaloosa when he says, "As for Perrilloux, it is clear that he is the more talented QB between he and Flynn." Don't tell Miles this. I'd much rather see Flynn lining up behind center tomorrow than Perrilloux.

Auburn Rushing Defense vs. Arkansas Rushing Offense

Well, I've opted to take a less serious look at the Arkansas game this week in lieu of talking about the impressive stats put up by the two-headed monster. In all honesty, I've tried not to think about their ability. I never thought I'd see the day where an Arkansas player scared me as much as Matt Jones. Now, they have two that fit this bill. With that, it's time to take a good look at Arkansas rushing offense, and Auburn's rushing defense with a little help from Scott at The Hog Source.

Scott first talks about Auburn's rushing defense here by saying,"Auburn cant stop the run." I commented that Auburn is 3rd in the SEC in rushing defense only allowing 116 YPG on the ground. I think Scott got his wires crossed because he then responded to my comment by stating that Auburn gave up 300+ rushing yards against South Florida. Actually, Auburn gave up 319 total yards (135 rushing). No biggy, I make mistakes like that all of the time.

Now, let's look at this homerific comparison between Auburn and Arkansas. On Arkansas' rushing offense:

"Our 2 best rushers are at a combined 1410 rushing yards. An average of 338.4 yards per game, and 7.4 yards per carry.
…Advantage Arkansas. This was a no brainer from the begining, we have the 2 running backs in the country."

You'll get no argument from me here. These guys are the real deal! Scott then downplays Auburn's wins:

"They have win’s over New Mexico State, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, and Florida (overrated?). Their 3 game winning streak that they are bragging about so much. New Mexico State, Florida, and Vanderbilt. Wooo. That would be like us bragging about our 2 game winning streak over North Texas and Tenessee Chattanooga."

First of all...no one's bragging. Auburn fans are excited to see their team actually playing football now, but bragging? Nah. Second, Vanderbilt and New Mexico State are really no big deal, but Florida at "The Swamp"? Yes, that's very impressive. Third, Auburn has beat four BCS schools, and lost to two. That's not very impressive, but it's still better than Arkansas' 0-2 record against BCS schools. A three game win streak involving two BCS teams, one which was ranked in the top five, is a lot more impressive than winning two games in a row (three is a streak) against a team that's now 0-5, and a team that's 1-4 in 1aa play.

My initial response to Scott included the following,

"If you’re going to downplay Auburn’s losses because of their competition, then you should also mention that Kentucky, Troy, and North Texas are 91st, 117th, and 118th in the nation in rush defense. Not to mention that UTC is 1aa."

Hey, tit for tat. His response:

"Kentucky was a loss. Troy and North Texas werent. The fact is, we contributed to them being ranked so low in rush defense. No team that we face, win or loss, ranked or unranked, have been able to stop our run. We have been posting 300-400+ yards rushing on every team we play."

I'm not sure why the mention of losing to UK, and beating Troy and North Texas. I agree 100% that no one has been able to stop the McFadden/Jones combination, but Scott's next sentence got me thinking. How much has Arkansas'rushing offense skewed their opponents' rushing defense stats? Also, can Auburn stop the run or have they played piss-poor rushing teams? I used cfbstats.com to see.

First, let's take a look at how Arkansas' opponents have performed against the run this year.

	Rank	TD	YPG	Total
Troy	117	14	350	1470
Bama	45	5	301	812
Kentucky	91	7	338	1102
N. Texas	118	20	446	1276
UTC	1AA	-	219	-

Now, let's take away the Arkansas games and see where the teams would rank.

	Rank	TD	YPG	Total
Troy	119	11	280	1120
Bama	24	3	102	511
Kentucky	60	6	153	764
N. Texas	106	15	208	830
UTC	1AA	-	209	-

Arkansas only made a real contribution to Alabama's and Kentucky's rushing defense rankings. Troy actually drops to last place without the Arkansas game. Bama's rush defense is solid. There are no arguments there. But one needs to take into consideration that the only other rushing team Kentucky has played this year was Kent State, and they gained 324 yards on the cats (UK's achilles?). Also, UTC has done the best in stopping the hogs' run, and that's with McFadden and Jones playing into the fourth quarter. It's also worth mentioning that Georgia Southern rushed for 324 yards against UTC.

Let's now take a look at how Auburn's opponents have performed on the ground this year.

	Rank	TD	YPG	Total
Kansas St	99	10	110	549
USF	37	13	181	905
MSU	51	11	161	966
NMST	85	3	122	612
Florida	21	17	203	1217
Vandy	69	6	142	708

Now, let's take away the Auburn games and see where the teams would rank.

	Rank	TD	YPG	Total
Kansas St	77	10	131	522
USF	29	11	193	770
MSU	56	10	158	790
NMST	84	2	123	492
Florida	16	16	221	1106
Vandy	68	5	144	575

Other than against Mississippi State, Auburn's rushing defense has performed better against these teams than other opponents. The most significant appears to be Kansas State, but the most impressive is Florida. Auburn held them to only 111 yards rushing. LSU, who has the number four rushing defense in the nation, only held them to 156 yards. So Scott's impression that "Auburn can't stop the run" is false. Now, will they be able to stop the run against Arkansas? No, but neither could Bama or Kentucky.

Let's now look at Auburn's rushing defense compared to the average Arkansas opponent's (minus Arkansas games, excluding UTC). Let's also look at a comparison between Arkansas' and the average Auburn opponent's (minus the Auburn games) rushing offense.

AU Rushing Defense
	Rank	YPG
Opp Avg	77	186
Auburn	33	116
Delta	44	70

Ark Rushing Offense
	Rank	YPG
Opp Avg	55	161
Arkansas	2	338
Delta	53	-177

Auburn definitely hasn't seen a rushing attack like the one Arkansas has. However, Arkansas has seen a rushing defense comparable to Auburn's. And that defense is Alabama's. Arkansas rushed for 301 against them. Seeing how Auburn could be without four of their defensive starters, I don't see how they're going to stop the Arkansas run.