Auburn Rushing Defense vs. Arkansas Rushing Offense

Well, I've opted to take a less serious look at the Arkansas game this week in lieu of talking about the impressive stats put up by the two-headed monster. In all honesty, I've tried not to think about their ability. I never thought I'd see the day where an Arkansas player scared me as much as Matt Jones. Now, they have two that fit this bill. With that, it's time to take a good look at Arkansas rushing offense, and Auburn's rushing defense with a little help from Scott at The Hog Source.

Scott first talks about Auburn's rushing defense here by saying,"Auburn cant stop the run." I commented that Auburn is 3rd in the SEC in rushing defense only allowing 116 YPG on the ground. I think Scott got his wires crossed because he then responded to my comment by stating that Auburn gave up 300+ rushing yards against South Florida. Actually, Auburn gave up 319 total yards (135 rushing). No biggy, I make mistakes like that all of the time.

Now, let's look at this homerific comparison between Auburn and Arkansas. On Arkansas' rushing offense:

"Our 2 best rushers are at a combined 1410 rushing yards. An average of 338.4 yards per game, and 7.4 yards per carry.
…Advantage Arkansas. This was a no brainer from the begining, we have the 2 running backs in the country."

You'll get no argument from me here. These guys are the real deal! Scott then downplays Auburn's wins:

"They have win’s over New Mexico State, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, and Florida (overrated?). Their 3 game winning streak that they are bragging about so much. New Mexico State, Florida, and Vanderbilt. Wooo. That would be like us bragging about our 2 game winning streak over North Texas and Tenessee Chattanooga."

First of all...no one's bragging. Auburn fans are excited to see their team actually playing football now, but bragging? Nah. Second, Vanderbilt and New Mexico State are really no big deal, but Florida at "The Swamp"? Yes, that's very impressive. Third, Auburn has beat four BCS schools, and lost to two. That's not very impressive, but it's still better than Arkansas' 0-2 record against BCS schools. A three game win streak involving two BCS teams, one which was ranked in the top five, is a lot more impressive than winning two games in a row (three is a streak) against a team that's now 0-5, and a team that's 1-4 in 1aa play.

My initial response to Scott included the following,

"If you’re going to downplay Auburn’s losses because of their competition, then you should also mention that Kentucky, Troy, and North Texas are 91st, 117th, and 118th in the nation in rush defense. Not to mention that UTC is 1aa."

Hey, tit for tat. His response:

"Kentucky was a loss. Troy and North Texas werent. The fact is, we contributed to them being ranked so low in rush defense. No team that we face, win or loss, ranked or unranked, have been able to stop our run. We have been posting 300-400+ yards rushing on every team we play."

I'm not sure why the mention of losing to UK, and beating Troy and North Texas. I agree 100% that no one has been able to stop the McFadden/Jones combination, but Scott's next sentence got me thinking. How much has Arkansas'rushing offense skewed their opponents' rushing defense stats? Also, can Auburn stop the run or have they played piss-poor rushing teams? I used cfbstats.com to see.

First, let's take a look at how Arkansas' opponents have performed against the run this year.

	Rank	TD	YPG	Total
Troy	117	14	350	1470
Bama	45	5	301	812
Kentucky	91	7	338	1102
N. Texas	118	20	446	1276
UTC	1AA	-	219	-

Now, let's take away the Arkansas games and see where the teams would rank.

	Rank	TD	YPG	Total
Troy	119	11	280	1120
Bama	24	3	102	511
Kentucky	60	6	153	764
N. Texas	106	15	208	830
UTC	1AA	-	209	-

Arkansas only made a real contribution to Alabama's and Kentucky's rushing defense rankings. Troy actually drops to last place without the Arkansas game. Bama's rush defense is solid. There are no arguments there. But one needs to take into consideration that the only other rushing team Kentucky has played this year was Kent State, and they gained 324 yards on the cats (UK's achilles?). Also, UTC has done the best in stopping the hogs' run, and that's with McFadden and Jones playing into the fourth quarter. It's also worth mentioning that Georgia Southern rushed for 324 yards against UTC.

Let's now take a look at how Auburn's opponents have performed on the ground this year.

	Rank	TD	YPG	Total
Kansas St	99	10	110	549
USF	37	13	181	905
MSU	51	11	161	966
NMST	85	3	122	612
Florida	21	17	203	1217
Vandy	69	6	142	708

Now, let's take away the Auburn games and see where the teams would rank.

	Rank	TD	YPG	Total
Kansas St	77	10	131	522
USF	29	11	193	770
MSU	56	10	158	790
NMST	84	2	123	492
Florida	16	16	221	1106
Vandy	68	5	144	575

Other than against Mississippi State, Auburn's rushing defense has performed better against these teams than other opponents. The most significant appears to be Kansas State, but the most impressive is Florida. Auburn held them to only 111 yards rushing. LSU, who has the number four rushing defense in the nation, only held them to 156 yards. So Scott's impression that "Auburn can't stop the run" is false. Now, will they be able to stop the run against Arkansas? No, but neither could Bama or Kentucky.

Let's now look at Auburn's rushing defense compared to the average Arkansas opponent's (minus Arkansas games, excluding UTC). Let's also look at a comparison between Arkansas' and the average Auburn opponent's (minus the Auburn games) rushing offense.

AU Rushing Defense
	Rank	YPG
Opp Avg	77	186
Auburn	33	116
Delta	44	70

Ark Rushing Offense
	Rank	YPG
Opp Avg	55	161
Arkansas	2	338
Delta	53	-177

Auburn definitely hasn't seen a rushing attack like the one Arkansas has. However, Arkansas has seen a rushing defense comparable to Auburn's. And that defense is Alabama's. Arkansas rushed for 301 against them. Seeing how Auburn could be without four of their defensive starters, I don't see how they're going to stop the Arkansas run.