Auburn is dead last in the SEC and ranked 92nd in D1 in third down conversions. But why? Bad execution? Predictable play calling? Whatever it is, they need to figure it out if they're going to win some more ballgames this year.
After reading a breakdown of Auburn's first down plays against NMSU on The Joe Cribbs Car Wash, I decided to do the same with their third down plays. Like Jerry Hinnen of TJCCW, I looked through the play-by-plays on The Official Website for Auburn Athletics.
After collecting the data, I broke it down into three different yardage situations: 4 or less yards, 5 to 7 yards, and 8 or more yards. I then divided each of these situations into passing and rushing. I included sacks with the pass plays. I also included what I assumed to be quarterback scrambles with the pass plays. I made the assumption based on who was carrying the ball, how many yards they needed for the first down, and whether or not they were hurried. I did this because I wanted to try and focus on the play calling, and not the execution.
Here is a breakdown of Auburn's third down conversions so far this year:
After reading a breakdown of Auburn's first down plays against NMSU on The Joe Cribbs Car Wash, I decided to do the same with their third down plays. Like Jerry Hinnen of TJCCW, I looked through the play-by-plays on The Official Website for Auburn Athletics.
After collecting the data, I broke it down into three different yardage situations: 4 or less yards, 5 to 7 yards, and 8 or more yards. I then divided each of these situations into passing and rushing. I included sacks with the pass plays. I also included what I assumed to be quarterback scrambles with the pass plays. I made the assumption based on who was carrying the ball, how many yards they needed for the first down, and whether or not they were hurried. I did this because I wanted to try and focus on the play calling, and not the execution.
Here is a breakdown of Auburn's third down conversions so far this year:
Yards | Rushing | Passing | Total | ||||||
to gain | Att | Conv | % | Att | Conv | % | Att | Conv | % |
4 or less | 14 | 9 | 64.3% | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 19 | 10 | 52.6% |
5 to 7 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 17 | 3 | 17.6% | 18 | 4 | 22.2% |
8 or more | 1 | 1 | 100% | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 20 | 5 | 25.0% |
Total | 16 | 11 | 68.8% | 41 | 8 | 19.5% | 57 | 19 | 33.3% |
Basically, if Auburn is within four yards of a first down, they're probably going to run the ball. If they need more than that, they're going to put the ball in the air.
Keep in mind that one of the passing plays in the "5 to 7" range was actually a Brandon Cox Scramble. With that, three of the passing plays in the "8 or more" range were QB scrambles, one resulting in a first down. Also, one sack is included in the first two ranges, while three is included in the third.
To further break down this information, it is necessary to look at what types of plays were ran. Keep in mind that the play-by-play does not indicate whether or not the play was a draw, trap, play action, etc. . . I tried to do my best with the information at hand.
Here is a breakdown of running plays on third down:
Keep in mind that one of the passing plays in the "5 to 7" range was actually a Brandon Cox Scramble. With that, three of the passing plays in the "8 or more" range were QB scrambles, one resulting in a first down. Also, one sack is included in the first two ranges, while three is included in the third.
To further break down this information, it is necessary to look at what types of plays were ran. Keep in mind that the play-by-play does not indicate whether or not the play was a draw, trap, play action, etc. . . I tried to do my best with the information at hand.
Here is a breakdown of running plays on third down:
Left | Right | ||||||
TE | OT | OG | C | OG | OT | TE | |
att | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
conv | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
% | 100% | - | 50% | 60% | 100% | - | 66.7% |
I guess you can't tell much from this breakdown other than Auburn isn't running the same play over and over again.
Here is a breakdown of passing plays on third down:
Left | Right | |||||
sideline | flat | middle | screen | flat | sideline | |
att | 5 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
conv | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
% | 0% | 42.9% | 23.1% | 0% | 0% | 33.3% |
As you can see, the majority of passes thrown are across the middle, or to the left. That's understandable since Cox is a southpaw. Included in the incompletions are two interceptions; one across the middle, and one down the right sideline. Not included are five sacks.
I didn't include the yardage situation for the last two graphs. There isn't much to tell in the rushing category. Most of the rushes are in short yardage situations. The passing category is a little different.
All four of the passes thrown in short yardage situations were to the left; two in the flat, and two down the sideline. The situations where five to seven yards are needed are across the board. Ten of the passes across the middle were in long situations.
It looks like Borges calls a variety of plays, but it doesn't look like he mixes them up too much in different situations. If it's third and five plus yards, he sends in a passing play. If it's third and less than five yards, two to five, he's going to run it. I understand the need to pass on third and long, but I'm not sure if it's necessary to do so 34 out of 36 times. Where's the play action on short situations? What about a draw, or a reverse on long situations? Anything different might help boost Auburn's third down percentage.
I'm not one to put all of the blame on Borges. Five of the missed conversions were sacks, but that doesn't compare to 31 incompletions and 2 interceptions out of 36 passes! Who's to blame there? Cox? The receivers for not getting open, and dropping balls when they do? Borges for calling a pass play on nearly all third down and five plus yards situations? I'm going with all of the above. Something needs to change.
I didn't include the yardage situation for the last two graphs. There isn't much to tell in the rushing category. Most of the rushes are in short yardage situations. The passing category is a little different.
All four of the passes thrown in short yardage situations were to the left; two in the flat, and two down the sideline. The situations where five to seven yards are needed are across the board. Ten of the passes across the middle were in long situations.
It looks like Borges calls a variety of plays, but it doesn't look like he mixes them up too much in different situations. If it's third and five plus yards, he sends in a passing play. If it's third and less than five yards, two to five, he's going to run it. I understand the need to pass on third and long, but I'm not sure if it's necessary to do so 34 out of 36 times. Where's the play action on short situations? What about a draw, or a reverse on long situations? Anything different might help boost Auburn's third down percentage.
I'm not one to put all of the blame on Borges. Five of the missed conversions were sacks, but that doesn't compare to 31 incompletions and 2 interceptions out of 36 passes! Who's to blame there? Cox? The receivers for not getting open, and dropping balls when they do? Borges for calling a pass play on nearly all third down and five plus yards situations? I'm going with all of the above. Something needs to change.
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