Week 5 Results

I was 7-1 in week 5. That brings my overall record to 33-10.

This week, the East went 2-1 against the West.

East

AU 20 - UF 17
Tuberville has made a history out of winning these types of games. If there's a time I prefer to be wrong, this is it.

USC 38 - MSU 21
It looks like USC has found their QB in Smelley. MSU's QB situation is back to being a questionmark.

UK 45 - FAU 17
UK is now ranked in the top 10. They'll be tested next weekend against USC.

UGA 45 - OM 17
This one wasn't close like I thought it would be. UGA ran all over the OM defense.

UT off

Vandy 30 - E. Mich 7
Yawn.

West

LSU 34 - Tulane 9
For some reason, this game couldn't keep my interest. It was a lot closer than most people expected, but LSU still beat them soundly.

FSU 21 - Bama 14
Like I said, this would would come down to Bama's passing game. They were 28/53. Unlucky for Bama, FSU found their QB during the game.

Arkansas 66 - North Texas 7
Jones averaged 18.9 yards per carry. He is now averaging over 10 yards per carry this year. He's good, but a lot of that has to do with defenses putting more focus on McFadden. That's one heck of a duo.

Florida Pregame

Kickoff is less than five minutes away. I have two big questions for this game:

1. Can Auburn convert on third down?


2. Can Auburn finally stop a team from scoring on their opening drive?

I’ll be happy if either one of those questions is answered a “Yes”.
Florida's crowd is nuts tonight. There's a definite advantage there.

Oh great, Blackledge is doing the color. I guess I should prepare myself for him arguing all calls against Florida.

Interesting...

During my usual game day morning browsing, I found something rather interesting on FSU's official athletic site. This bit of knowledge is part of the Alabama Football Trivia that was compiled by Alabama Sports Information:

2. Prior to today's game in Jacksonville, when was the last time Alabama played a regular-season neutral site game?

A: Alabama defeated Ohio State 16-10 on Aug. 27, 1986 at the Kickoff Classic at Giants Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J.

That's right, Legion Field was not a neutral site.

SEC Picks - Week 5

East

Auburn at Florida - Tuberville has made a history out of winning these types of games. Looking for any possible advantage that Auburn might have, I came up empty handed.
Tebow 28 - Auburn 14

MSU at USC - USC seems to be having some trouble on the offensive side of the ball. Not so much on the other side of the ball. That could spell trouble for Hennig.
USC 21 - MSU 7

FAU at UK - Some people are saying this is a trap game for UK. I'm saying that if North Texas can put up 20 points on FAU, Woodson can put up at least 30.
UK 35 - FAU 14

OM at UGA - This one could actually go either way. OM showed the world that they could fight last week. However, this isn't their week to pull off an upset.
UGA 28 - OM 21

UT off

Eastern Michigan at Vandy - I sure wish the SEC would quit scheduling these teams.
Vandy 38 - Eastern Michigan 12

West

LSU at Tulane - I hate playing the "chain comparison" game, but LSU beat a team 45-0 that beat Tulane 38-17. Miles needs to move Flynn back to his natural position of backup QB and let Perrilloux light up the Green Wave defense.
LSU 60 - Tulane 6

Alabama vs FSU - Believe it or not, this is the toughest game to call this week. FSU's offense is horrible, but Bama's defense isn't exactly LSU's. FSU does have a a good defense, specifically their run defense (74.7 YPG). Bottom line, Jessica Parker will win or lose this game.
FSU 24 - Bama 23

North Texas at Arkansas - Jones is averaging 9 yards a carry this year. McFadden is averaging 6 yards a carry. North Texas has had an average of 51 points per game scored on them.
Arkansas 42 - North Texas 13

Auburn's Third Down Conversions

Auburn is dead last in the SEC and ranked 92nd in D1 in third down conversions. But why? Bad execution? Predictable play calling? Whatever it is, they need to figure it out if they're going to win some more ballgames this year.

After reading a breakdown of Auburn's first down plays against NMSU on The Joe Cribbs Car Wash, I decided to do the same with their third down plays. Like Jerry Hinnen of TJCCW, I looked through the play-by-plays on The Official Website for Auburn Athletics.

After collecting the data, I broke it down into three different yardage situations: 4 or less yards, 5 to 7 yards, and 8 or more yards. I then divided each of these situations into passing and rushing. I included sacks with the pass plays. I also included what I assumed to be quarterback scrambles with the pass plays. I made the assumption based on who was carrying the ball, how many yards they needed for the first down, and whether or not they were hurried. I did this because I wanted to try and focus on the play calling, and not the execution.

Here is a breakdown of Auburn's third down conversions so far this year:

Yards	Rushing			Passing			Total
to gain	Att	Conv	%	Att	Conv	%	Att	Conv	%
4 or less	14	9	64.3%	5	1	20.0%	19	10	52.6%
5 to 7	1	1	100%	17	3	17.6%	18	4	22.2%
8 or more	1	1	100%	19	4	21.1%	20	5	25.0%
Total	16	11	68.8%	41	8	19.5%	57	19	33.3%

Basically, if Auburn is within four yards of a first down, they're probably going to run the ball. If they need more than that, they're going to put the ball in the air.

Keep in mind that one of the passing plays in the "5 to 7" range was actually a Brandon Cox Scramble. With that, three of the passing plays in the "8 or more" range were QB scrambles, one resulting in a first down. Also, one sack is included in the first two ranges, while three is included in the third.

To further break down this information, it is necessary to look at what types of plays were ran. Keep in mind that the play-by-play does not indicate whether or not the play was a draw, trap, play action, etc. . . I tried to do my best with the information at hand.

Here is a breakdown of running plays on third down:

	Left				Right
	TE	OT	OG	C	OG	OT	TE
att	2	0	2	5	1	0	6
conv	2	0	1	3	1	0	4
%	100%	-	50%	60%	100%	-	66.7%

I guess you can't tell much from this breakdown other than Auburn isn't running the same play over and over again.

Here is a breakdown of passing plays on third down:

	Left				Right
	sideline	flat	middle	screen	flat	sideline
att	5	7	13	1	3	3
conv	0	3	3	0	0	1
%	0%	42.9%	23.1%	0%	0%	33.3%

As you can see, the majority of passes thrown are across the middle, or to the left. That's understandable since Cox is a southpaw. Included in the incompletions are two interceptions; one across the middle, and one down the right sideline. Not included are five sacks.

I didn't include the yardage situation for the last two graphs. There isn't much to tell in the rushing category. Most of the rushes are in short yardage situations. The passing category is a little different.

All four of the passes thrown in short yardage situations were to the left; two in the flat, and two down the sideline. The situations where five to seven yards are needed are across the board. Ten of the passes across the middle were in long situations.

It looks like Borges calls a variety of plays, but it doesn't look like he mixes them up too much in different situations. If it's third and five plus yards, he sends in a passing play. If it's third and less than five yards, two to five, he's going to run it. I understand the need to pass on third and long, but I'm not sure if it's necessary to do so 34 out of 36 times. Where's the play action on short situations? What about a draw, or a reverse on long situations? Anything different might help boost Auburn's third down percentage.

I'm not one to put all of the blame on Borges. Five of the missed conversions were sacks, but that doesn't compare to 31 incompletions and 2 interceptions out of 36 passes! Who's to blame there? Cox? The receivers for not getting open, and dropping balls when they do? Borges for calling a pass play on nearly all third down and five plus yards situations? I'm going with all of the above. Something needs to change.

Blogspot makes it difficult to post tables...

Who Owns the Refs?

Bama fans like to claim that they own the SEC, but what about the refs? No way! They never get the calls. In fact the refs are always out to get the mighty Tide. So what's the truth? I had the time, so I looked up the penalty numbers for Auburn and Alabama in their first four games. I then went a step further and looked up each of their opponents' penalty numbers as well.

Here is a basic comparison of the penalties called in Alabama's and Auburn's games this year:

	Pen.	Yards	Pen./G	Yards/G	1st dns	1st dns/G
Bama	22	184	5.5	46	10	2.5
Opponents	27	267	6.8	66.8	3	0.8
Auburn	24	208	6	52	9	2.3
Opponents	34	265	8.5	66.3	7	1.8

In a direct comparison between the two, Auburn is averaging 0.5 more penalties and 6 more penalty yards a game than Alabama. Auburn opponents are averaging 1.7 more penalties and .5 less penalty yards a game than Alabama's opponents.

Both Alabama and Auburn have less penalties and penalty yards than their opponents. There is a wider margin of penalties called in Auburn's games. However, there is a wider margin of penalty yardage in Bama's games.

The numbers that really stick out are the 1st downs gained from penalties. Alabama has 7 more 1st downs attributed to penalties than their opponents. Auburn only has two.

You can't find out that much looking at the first set of numbers. Kansas State, one of Auburn's opponents, is averaging 133 yards of penalties a game. On the other hand, Vanderbilt, one of Alabama's opponents, is only averaging 42.7 penalty yards a game. So I decided to look at what Alabama's and Auburn's opponents were averaging in their other games in regards to penalties.

Here is a comparison of the average penalties called in Alabama's and Auburn's opponents' other games and what was called in their games against the Tide and Tigers.

	Pen./G	Yards/G	Opp. Pen./G	Opp. Yards/G
vs. others (avg)	6	50.5	7	53.1
vs. Bama	6.8	66.8	5.5	46
vs. others (avg)	8.6	79.8	7.8	60.3
vs. Auburn	8.5	66.3	6	52

This might paint a clearer picture of what's happening. On average, teams have been penalized more and for more yards when playing Alabama than when playing other teams. This hasn't been the case for Auburn's opponents. Compared to other teams the opponents have played, Auburn and Alabama get called for less penalties, and are penalized for less yards.

So what does this information reveal? Other than the fact that I had too much time on my hands yesterday, it doesn't reveal too much. By these numbers alone, it would appear that Bama is benefiting more from the refs than Auburn is. In reality, these statistics only scratch the surface. They don't indicate the situation surrounding each penalty. Also, there is no record of "no-calls". Alabama and Auburn fans will just have to keep arguing over who owns the refs. There is one thing we can all agree on, though. If ESPN analyst, Todd Blackledge, had his druthers, Bama would have 0 penalties for 0 yards this year.

Week 4 Results

I went 6-1 for week 4. My overall record is 26-9.

The East went 3-1 against the West this week. The East has two undefeated teams and three one-loss teams. UT is pulling up the rear with a 2-2 record. The West only has one undefeated team and two one-loss teams. Arkansas and Ole Miss only have one win. The West is definitely down this year, but they have the team that will win the conference.

East

UF 30 - OM 24
So this one wasn't quite the blowout I predicted. What went wrong for UF? 127 penalty hards definitely didn't help. Ole Miss did gain more yardage than UT against the gators. Maybe they aren't as bad as everyone thought. Nah, it's just one of those one-offs.

UGA 26 - Bama 23 (OT)
My gut wanted to pick UGA for this game, but I think a little homerism might have been involved in that. My brain said "Bama" so Bama I chose. Even with 2 interceptions, Stafford was impressive. UGA's defense further proved that Sara Jessica has trouble when pressured. At least he put the blame of the loss on himself, which is more than I can say about Saban.

UK 42 - Arkansas 29
This one was a tale of two offenses. Bama exposed Arkansas' weak secondary last week. Woodson took advantage of this throwing for 265 yards and 2 TDs. The hogs could only muster 1 offensive touchdown. That's amazing considering how many yards they got on offense, 495. Jones averaged 11.1 on the ground and returned a kickoff for a TD.

UT 48 - ASU 27
UT's opponents are averaging 439 yards and 37.5 points a game. Those numbers a skewed a bit by the Cal and UF games, but ASU still managed to gain 377 yards and score 27 points. The great pumpkin really might be on the "hot terlet".

Vandy - off

West

LSU 28 - USC 16
This one went as expected. LSU held the cocks to only 17 yards on the ground, but Smelley and Mitchell were able to gain 244 yards in the air. Flynn was only 8 for 19 and threw his first interception of the year. LSU's offense only gained 70 in the air. That looks to be their weakness. Their defense is an absolute force though.

MSU 31 - Gardner-Webb 15
Yup, Gardner-Webb's high-powered offense put more on the boards against MSU than Auburn did last week. They also managed to not turn the ball over 5 times. Kudos to them.

Auburn 55 - NMSU 20
Auburn fans are celebrating after this one. Not because of the win, but because of the play. Yes, NMSU is a bad team. But hey, so is MSU. The fans are celebrating because the Tigers actually looked like a football team. Auburn fans rolled their eyes when Cox fumbled his first snap of the game, but their hearts were warmed when the student section started chanting his name later on in the game.

SEC Picks - Week 4

Florida at Ole Miss - The Florida offense is averaging 55.7 points, and 521.4 yards a game, while the Ole Miss defense is allowing 30 points, and 466 yards a game. Yeah, this one will be a blowout.
Tebow 60 - Hotty-Toddlers 14

South Carolina at LSU - Even with two patsy-games, South Carolina's offense hasn't been able to put up impressive numbers. LSU's defense has. They're only allowing 2.3 points a game. With that, they've allowed less than 100 yards passing and only 30 yards on the ground a game. Granted, they've only played a vastly overrated Virginia Tech, but it's impressive none the less. The cock's passing defense will give Flynn some trouble.
Drunks 24 - Cocks 10

Kentucky at Arkansas - Did Arkansas learn from their mistakes last week? If they come out in that man-to-man BS that did them in last week, they'll be in some serious trouble. On the other side of the ball, can UK's defense stop the WildHog formation? The answer is no, no they can't. This one will further prove that the SEC might not be known for it's powerful defenses anymore.
Shats 38 - Bacon 34

Arkansas State at Tennessee - Tennessee has allowed 41 points a game this year. ASU doesn't appear to be chopped liver this year. They made a game against Texas pretty close. Then again, look what happened to the horns last week. Most years, this would be a game where the great pumpkin could relax, work out some kinks, and play some of those younger players. This year, not so much.
Viles 28 - Tontos 14

Vanderbilt off

Georgia at Alabama - UGA's defense, which I thought would be their weak point this year, seems to be doing quite well. Will they be able to walk into Bryant Denny restaurant and make a statement? Pressuring Sara Jessica is a must for the UGA defense. But when you see that Bama has only allowed 4 sacks, and UGA has only 6 sacks, you have to wonder if they will be able to. If the energy is the same as last week, Bama will win.
Tampons 21 - Dawgs 20

Gardner-Webb at MSU - Croom's boys deserve a game like this after beating Auburn last week.
Croomdogs 35 - Runnin' 1AAs 6

New Mexico State at Auburn - I am 100% honest when I say I have no idea how to call this one. I have never seen a team at any level playing with such a lack of intensity and emotion. On paper, this one looks like a New Mexico State blowout. Thank it's played on the gridiron. I'd like to give Auburn a nod for home field advantage, but the only games they've dropped last year and this year have been at home. I'd like to see Burns get the nod this week. I'm sorry, but if the starter can't get it done, it's time to start playing the future.
Wounded Tigers 21 - Aggies 17

Week 3 Results

Is it Friday already? Wow! I haven't had a chance to breathe this week! I went 5-3 last week leaving me with an overall record of 20-8.

East

UF 59 - UT 20
Wow, I guess I gave UT's defense a little too much credit. I've said all along that Tebow is the real deal. Is anyone still doubting this after Saturday's performance? I'm still surprised that we haven't seen more of Tebow's backup. Is Meyer just trying to pad is stats? If Tebow goes down, they're in trouble.

USC 38 - SCS 3
Boring!

UK 40 - UL 34
Speaking of "the real deal", Andre' Woodson be thy name! I honestly don't know why this was considered an upset, and why more people weren't picking Kentucky. Middle Tennessee State put 34 points on them!

UGA 45 - WCU 16
How much money is Western Carolina making from the SEC this year?

Vandy 31 - OM 17
Maybe Auburn isn't the worst team in the West after all. Ole Miss averaged 1.7 yards per rush...against Vanderbilt! I know they returned most of their defense, but it's still Vanderbilt.

West

LSU 44 - MTSU 0
Miles opted to play Perrilloux instead of Flynn this game. Well, at least Matt is used to being a backup. Even still, this is just another boring patsy game.

Bama 41 - Ark 38
This was the most exciting game I've seen this year. Bama looked good on offense at times. JPW still makes bad decisions when he's under pressure. He did throw the ball inside the 10, though. I the past, he's been too run-happy in that area. Bama's defense has some holes. So does Arkansas. Man to man coverage on the last drive? Someone needs to be shot for that.

MSU 19 - AU 14
I was never sold on Muschamp. I can't stand the bend but don't break defense. The opposing team has scored on the opening drive against Auburn in all three games this year. There, so no one will ever accuse me of putting all of the blame on Cox. Speaking of which, just bench him. He isn't performing well. Burns is young and doesn't quite know the offense, but he moves the ball. He also gets his team fired up. Cox looks and plays like he's on Ambien. He needs to snap out of it. If not, he needs to call plays into Burns.

SEC Picks - Week 3

I've been way to busy this week (again) to get this blog rolling. Eventually, I'll find my voice and be able post regularly. For now, it's just for my entertainment. Here are my thoughts on the two instate teams, and my picks for the rest of the SEC.

On Auburn and MSU: I posted this comment on Best of the SEC Blogs, "Their defense matches up well against Auburn. Holmes and Brown are both NFL-caliber players. You can bet that Croom is going to line them up on the same side as Auburn's frosh linemen. They were able to pressure Flynn the entire LSU game. Cox doesn't have the supporting cast that Flynn does, and has been making piss-poor decisions even when NOT under pressure. Groves et al will be too much for Hennig. Auburn will win, but it won't be a blowout."

On Bama and Arkansas: This is a very tough game to call. Arkansas only returns one starter on their OL. They will match up well against Bama's weak front seven. McFadden and Jones should put up 100 a piece. I think Bama should be able to move the ball on offense as well, but this will be the first semi-good defense that they've faced this year. Bottom line, McFadden and Jones will win it for the Hogs.

East

UT - 28
UF - 31

South Carolina State - 6
USC - 42

Louisville - 31
UK - 42

Western Carolina - 0
UGA - 52

Ole Miss - 21
Vandy - 17

West

Middle Tennessee - 0
LSU - 56

Arkansas - 28
Alabama - 24

MSU - 3
Auburn - 17

A whole lot of talk, but from where?

I listen to the Opening Drive in the mornings, and Finebaum in the afternoons. I've heard numerous Bama fans call both shows and talk about all of the "aubies" calling for Tuberville's head. I've also heard Finebaum, and Tony Kurre mention this several times. I find it strange that I haven't heard a single caller doing this. I also haven't spoken with a single Auburn fan who feels this way about Tuberville. What's the deal? Am I listening at the wrong time? Are the hosts and Bama callers full of it? Either way, I'm not hearing it!

There has also been discussion over whether or not blame should be placed on Brandon Cox for the loss against USF. My take on this? Partially.

Cox had this to say about his performance:

"It's decisions, mainly, and trying to make things happen to much," Cox said. "I've just got to take what they give me and not try to force things. If it's not there, don't try to make something happen."

As a professional armchair quarterback, I have to disagree. Cox is not trying to do too much. He is not playing to win. He is playing to not get injured. Here's why I feel this way:

1. The offensive line performed well against USF. Cox didn't have defenders in his face all night long like he did against KSU, but he sure did play like it. He was throwing the ball early off of his back foot into double and triple coverage the entire game.
2. The few times that he was pressured or actually decided to scramble down the field, he went completely limp before getting hit. I noticed this in the KSU game as well. Before he gets hit, his head and shoulders drop.

This leads me to ask if there is something going on that the public doesn't know about. How many concussions has Cox suffered from over his career? It's pretty evident that he suffered one during the KSU game. The "How many concussions are too many?" argument is a whole separate can of worms, but if Cox has had several already, I'm not sure if he should still be playing. I would rather take my chances with a backup quarterback than having someone permanently injured.

Whether the above scenario is true or not remains to be seen. Maybe Cox isn't keeping his head on straight during the week. I don't know, but the fact remains that he is not mentally there during the games. Sure, he doesn't have the supporting cast that he's had during the past two years, but some of the mistakes he's making are just too questionable for a fifth year senior with two years starting under his belt.